Lidl Christmas dinner offer goes viral on Twitter






BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Discount retailer Lidl faces a 200,000-euro ($ 260,000) Christmas dinner bill after an offer of chicken vol-au-vents and ice cream cake for the poor went viral.


The supermarket launched a Twitter campaign in Belgium on Monday, saying it would hand out five four-course Christmas dinners to food banks for each tweet on a hash tag.






Lidl had expected to hand out about 1,000 of the 20-euro dinner packs, consisting of tomato soup, vol-au-vents with chips, an ice-cream cake and chocolates, a spokesman for the German-based company’s Belgium unit said on Wednesday.


But local newspapers wrote about the offer and people retweeted using the hash tag – #luxevooriedereen, Dutch for “luxury for everyone”.


By the end of the 24-hour campaign, 1,500 people had tweeted, meaning Lidl has to deliver 7,500 dinners. That sparked reports the supermarket had been caught out by its campaign.


To quash such talk, Lidl rounded up the number of dinners to 10,000, and branded the campaign a success.


Lidl said it had not yet decided whether to repeat the exercise next year.


“We’ve learnt quite a few lessons over the past 48 hours, to say the least,” the spokesman said.


($ 1 = 0.7693 euros)


(Reporting By Ben Deighton. Editing By Sebastian Moffett.)


Social Media News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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Stephen Fishbach Blogs About Lisa Whelchel's End-Game Survivor Strategy






Survivor










12/13/2012 at 11:45 AM EST







Stephen Fishbach and Lisa Whelchel


Monty Brinton/CBS (2)


"You're going to want to show that either you were the top villain or the top hero or the top something. You're going to want to show you had the gameplay to get you there, and you even turned on your own to get you there. That is the game."
– Rupert Boneham, Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains

Oh, Lisa. I don't know why week to week I let you toy with my heart the way you do.

Almost every episode, Lisa announces her Survivor coming-out. She's been passive – but she's finally ready to take control of her destiny and make a big move. Tonight. Seriously. Right now.

Except it never quite comes together. The wrong person wins immunity or the right person makes a heartfelt appeal. "I could've played a great game," Lisa told her brother last week, channeling Marlon Brando in On The Waterfront.

Lisa's excuse for not voting out Denise is that she's thinking about whom she wants to sit next to at the final tribal. And I know how hard those last few days can be.

The challenge of the end-game is that group decision-making gets shunted aside for individual decision-making. You need to think about what's best for you, not what's best for your alliance. Your erstwhile allies are making the same calculations.

Every tiny decision has impossibly complex repercussions. Skupin says it best: "Everything matters so much when you get down to the end game like this. And you have to consider every scenario if you want to come out on top."

Just track Lisa's thought process. She wants to sit at the end with Abi. But if she keeps Abi instead of Denise this week, Malcolm will be likelier to take Abi instead of her next week, because Denise is more threatening to Malcolm. Malcolm and Denise are likely to turn on each other, as they're each other's biggest competition for jury votes. So by keeping Denise, Lisa basically ensures that she and Skupin will make the finals. Get all that?

The problem with Lisa's thinking is that she's devised a foolproof plan to get to the end – and a foolproof plan to lose. Sure, either Denise or Malcolm will be gone. But then the other one will still be there to rake in the million. So Lisa and Skupin are guaranteed to make final tribal ... along with someone who's sure to beat them.

Lisa wins an anti-Fishy for her inaction. By taking out Denise, Lisa could give herself at least a shot of making it to the final three with Abi, and without a jury threat.

She might actually have been a contender.

Rupert Boneham on Survivor Juries
I asked America's favorite player, Rupert Boneham, for his insight into what the jurors are thinking while they contemplate who to crown Sole Survivor. Rupert has served on more juries than any other contestants – on Pearl Islands, All Stars and Heroes vs. Villains. He recently ran for governor in Indiana; now, he's once again mentoring Rupert's Kids.

Do juries have a favorite going in?
Almost everyone in the jury goes in with the idea of who they hate least. It's usually not a favorite as much as who you are least mad at.

Does the final tribal actually change the vote?Final tribal can change jury members' votes. I've seen it work both ways. If you are good at explaining why you did what you did in the game, I have seen jury members change their opinion about you in the middle of tribal council. The same way, when you are pitiful at answering questions, I have seen people lose votes for their answers.

Do jurors affect each others' opinions at Ponderosa?
At the Ponderosa, you are able to talk and interact with each other. But, when you start trying to influence votes, you can be sequestered in your own little area away from everyone else. The producers don't actively police the jury, but will respond to complaints.

Note: Other jurors dispute the Ponderosa sequester.

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Dozens sue pharmacy, but compensation uncertain


NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Dennis O'Brien rubs his head as he details ailments triggered by the fungal meningitis he developed after a series of steroid shots in his neck: nausea, vomiting, dizziness, drowsiness, blurred vision, exhaustion and trouble with his speech and attention.


He estimates the disease has cost him and his wife thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket expenses and her lost wages, including time spent on 6-hour round trip weekly visits to the hospital. They've filed a lawsuit seeking $4 million in damages from the Massachusetts pharmacy that supplied the steroid injections, but it could take years for them to get any money back and they may never get enough to cover their expenses. The same is true for dozens of others who have sued the New England Compounding Center.


"I don't have a life anymore. My life is a meningitis life," the 59-year-old former school teacher said, adding that he's grateful he survived.


His is one of at least 50 federal lawsuits in nine states that have been filed against NECC, and more are being filed in state courts every day. More than 500 people have gotten sick after receiving injections prepared by the pharmacy.


The lawsuits allege that NECC negligently produced a defective and dangerous product and seek millions to repay families for the death of spouses, physically painful recoveries, lost wages and mental and emotional suffering. Thirty-seven people have died in the outbreak.


"The truth is the chance of recovering damages from NECC is extremely low," said John Day, a Nashville attorney who represents several patients who have been sickened by fungal meningitis.


To streamline the process, attorneys on both sides are asking to have a single judge preside over the pretrial and discovery phases for all of the federal lawsuits.


This approach, called multidistrict litigation, would prevent inconsistent pretrial rulings and conserve resources of all parties. But unlike a class-action case, those lawsuits would eventually be returned to judges in their original district for trial, according to Brian Fitzpatrick, a law professor at Vanderbilt University Law School in Nashville.


Even with this approach, Fitzpatrick noted that federal litigation is very slow, and gathering all the evidence, records and depositions during the discovery phase could take months or years.


"Most of the time what happens is once they are consolidated for pretrial proceedings, there is a settlement, a global settlement between all the lawyers and the defendants before anything is shipped back for trial," he said.


A lawyer representing NECC, Frederick H. Fern, described the consolidation process as an important step.


"A Boston venue is probably the best scenario," Fern said in an email. "That's where the parties, witnesses and documents are located, and where the acts subject to these complaints occurred."


Complicating efforts to recover damages, attorneys for the patients said, NECC is a small private company that has now recalled all its products and laid off its workers. The company's pharmacy licenses have been surrendered, and it's unclear whether NECC had adequate liability insurance.


Fern said NECC has insurance, but they were still determining what the policy covers.


But Day says, "It's clear to me that at the end of the day, NECC is not going to have sufficient assets to compensate any of these people, not even 1 percent."


As a result, many attorneys are seeking compensation from other parties. Among the additional defendants named in lawsuits are NECC pharmacist and co-founder Barry Cadden; co-founder Greg Conigliaro; sister company Ameridose and its marketing and support arm, Medical Sales Management.


Founded in 2006 by Cadden and Conigliaro, Ameridose would eventually report annual revenue of $100 million. An NECC spokesman didn't respond to a request for the pharmacy's revenue.


While Federal Drug Administration regulators have also found contamination issues at Westborough, Mass.-based Ameridose, the FDA has said it has not connected Ameridose drugs to infection or illness.


Under tort law, a lawsuit has to prove a defendant has a potential liability, which in this case could be anyone involved in the medical procedure. However, any such suit could take years and ultimately may not be successful.


"I would not be surprised if doctors, hospitals, people that actually injected the drugs, the people that bought the drugs from the compounding company, many of those people will also be sued," said Fitzpatrick.


Plaintiffs' attorneys said they're considering that option but want more information on the relationships between the compounding pharmacy and the hundreds of hospitals and clinics that received its products.


Day, the attorney in Tennessee, said the clinics and doctors that purchase their drugs from compounding pharmacies or manufacturers could be held liable for negligence because they are in a better position to determine the safety of the medicine than the patients.


"Did they use due care in determining from whom to buy these drugs?" Day said.


Terry Dawes, a Michigan attorney who has filed at least 10 federal lawsuits in the case, said in traditional product liability cases, a pharmaceutical distributor could be liable.


"We are looking at any conceivable sources of recovery for our clients including pharmaceutical supply places that may have dealt with this company in the past," he said.


Ten years ago, seven fungal meningitis illnesses and deaths were linked to injectable steroid from a South Carolina compounding pharmacy. That resulted in fewer than a dozen lawsuits, a scale much smaller than the litigations mounting up against NECC.


Two companies that insured the South Carolina pharmacy and its operators tried unsuccessfully to deny payouts. An appellate court ruled against their argument that the pharmacy willfully violated state regulations by making multiple vials of the drug without specific prescriptions, but the opinion was unpublished and doesn't set a precedent for the current litigation.


The lawsuits represent a way for patients and their families recover expenses, but also to hold the pharmacy and others accountable for the incalculable emotional and physical toll of the disease.


A binder of snapshots shows what life is like in the O'Briens' rural Fentress County, Tenn., home: Dennis hooked up to an IV, Dennis in an antibiotics stupor, bruises on his body from injections and blood tests. He's had three spinal taps. His 11-day stay in the hospital cost over $100,000, which was covered by health insurance.


His wife said she sometimes quietly checks at night to see whether her husband of 35 years is still breathing.


"In my mind, I thought we were going to fight this and get over it. But we are not ever going to get over it," said Kaye O'Brien.


Marjorie Norwood, a 59-year-old grandmother of three who lives in Ethridge, Tenn., has spent just shy of two months total in the hospital in Nashville battling fungal meningitis after receiving a steroid injection in her back. She was allowed to come home for almost a week around Thanksgiving, but was readmitted after her symptoms worsened.


Family members are still dealing with much uncertainty about her recovery, but they have not filed a lawsuit, said their attorney Mark Chalos. He said Norwood will likely be sent to a rehabilitation facility after her second stay in the hospital rather than return home again.


Marjorie Norwood's husband, an autoworker, has taken time off work to care for her and they depend on his income and insurance.


"It doesn't just change her life, it changes everyone else's life around her because we care about her and want her to be happy and well and have everything that she needs," said her daughter, Melanie Norwood.


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Wall Street adds gains, S&P at highest since early November


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks extended gains on Tuesday as an advance in tech shares sent indexes up 1 percent, helping the S&P 500 retrace all of its losses since the U.S. presidential election.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> gained 123.10 points, or 0.93 percent, to 13,292.98. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> rose 14.54 points, or 1.02 percent, to 1,433.09. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> climbed 44.30 points, or 1.48 percent, to 3,031.27.


The S&P 500 rose as high as 1,434.27, matching an intraday high seen on Nov 2.


(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)



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Cheikh Modibo Diarra, Mali’s Prime Minister, Resigns After Arrest





BAMAKO, Mali — Soldiers arrested Mali’s prime minister at his residence late Monday night, signaling new turmoil in a West African nation racked by military interference and an Islamist takeover in the north.







Associated Press

Prime Minister Cheikh Modibo Diarra appeared on state television and announced his government’s resignation on Tuesday.







Hours later, Prime Minister Cheikh Modibo Diarra appeared grim-faced on national television to announce his government’s resignation. A spokesman for soldiers who seized power earlier in the year — and later nominally relinquished it to Mr. Diarra — confirmed the prime minister’s arrest on Tuesday morning, accusing him of “playing a personal agenda” while the country faced a crisis in the north. The soldiers arrived at Mr. Diarra’s home around 11 p.m. Monday as he was preparing for a flight to Paris for a medical checkup, said the military spokesman, Bakary Mariko. The prime minister was taken to the military encampment at Kati, just outside Bamako, the capital, where Capt. Amadou Sanogo, the officer who led the March military coup, and others told him “there were proofs against him that he was calling for subversion,” Mr. Mariko said.


On Tuesday morning, the streets of Bamako appeared calm following what appeared to be the country’s second coup d’état in less than a year. But the new upheaval is likely to be considered a setback to Western efforts to help Mali regain control of territory lost to Qaeda-linked militants earlier in the year.


The West has watched with growing alarm as Islamist radicals have constructed a stronghold in the country’s vast north. The United Nations, regional African bodies, France and the United States have tried to aid the faltering Malian Army in a military strike to take back the lost north. Those efforts have so far not coalesced into a coherent plan, despite numerous meetings and United Nations resolutions. More meetings at the United Nations are planned for later this month.


The latest political turmoil in the capital will almost certainly slow down any campaign in the north, however. Already, the United States has expressed reluctance to provide too much direct military assistance, given the shakiness of the political order here. Those doubts are only likely to increase following the latest upheaval.


Mr. Diarra — appointed last spring as a caretaker prime minister until new elections could be organized — was known to disagree with Captain Sanogo on military policy.


He has been an advocate of immediate international military assistance to recapture the north from the Islamists. Captain Sanogo has rebuffed suggestions that the Malian military is incapable of handling the job on its own. Indeed, the captain for weeks resisted the notion that troops from other African nations should even approach the capital.


While Mr. Diarra has made the rounds of foreign capitals, pleading for help to fight the increasingly aggressive Islamists, military leaders have remained at the Kati base, grumbling.


That conflict was evident in the declarations of the military’s spokesman on Tuesday. “Since he has been in power, he has been working simply to position his own family,” Mr. Mariko said. “There has been a paralysis in government.”


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WebMD to cut 14 percent of workforce to reduce expenses






(Reuters) – Health information website WebMD Health Corp said it will cut around 250 jobs, or 14 percent of its workforce, to reduce costs.


The company, which had about 1700 employees according to Thomson Reuters data, said it would take a charge of about $ 6 million to $ 8 million in the fourth quarter, primarily on severance and other restructuring-related costs.






WebMD, which is a popular and long-trusted destination for checking health and disease related information, has lost its sheen for investors in recent times as it struggled to convert its growing user base into a steady revenue stream.


The company named a former Pfizer Inc executive Cavan Redmond as CEO earlier this year, entrusting the industry veteran with the task of reviving the website’s flagging business.


Its previous CEO, Wayne Gattinella, resigned after the company took itself off the auction block in January.


WebMD also said on Tuesday that it plans to streamline its operations and focus resources on increasing user engagement, customer satisfaction and innovation, and expects these efforts to reduce annualized operating expenses by about $ 45 million.


While most of the job cuts will be effective at the end of the year, other cost saving actions will be implemented in the first quarter of 2013, the company said in a statement.


The company reported a third-quarter loss in November, compared with a profit in the year-ago quarter, and said revenue fell 13 percent.


WebMD’s shares, which have lost nearly 40 percent of their value over the past six months, were down about 2 percent in premarket trade. They closed at $ 13.85 on Monday on the Nasdaq.


(Reporting by Esha Dey in Bangalore; Editing by Roshni Menon)


Internet News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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Camille Grammer: Kelsey Won't Let My Kids Say My Name in His House















12/11/2012 at 11:35 AM EST







From left: Camille Grammer, Rosanna Scotto and Anderson Cooper



Kelsey and Camille Grammer's bitter split has led to a fragile co-parenting relationship that Camille says is all but broken – marred by an almost complete lack of communication made even worse, she claims, by a weird rule Kelsey has at his home.

"They're not allowed to same my name in the house," the Real Housewives of Beverly Hills star, 44, says in an interview airing Tuesday on Anderson Live. "These poor kids, my daughter and my son, can't say my name in their father's house."

"I think they can say 'Mom' or 'The other household,' " she adds. "But they can't say my name. They can't say 'Camille.' "

She says she consulted her lawyers to see if she could do anything about it. "I said, 'What's my recourse in this? What do I do as a parent?' " she says. "It must be stressful for them to not be able to say their mother's name. But there is no recourse because we already settled our custody."

A rep for Kelsey had no comment on the claims.

Co-Parenting a Struggle

More generally, Camille says co-parenting daughter Mason, 11, and son Jude, 8, is a daily struggle – mostly, she claims, because she wants to be amicable about things and Kelsey doesn't.

"It's very difficult to co-parent with somebody that won't speak to you, text you or email you," she says. "I've reached out to him. I think it's very important to be amicable to raise children, and he refuses to. There's just so much I can do at this point."

Asked how they do communicate, she replies: "It's usually through lawyers. So, we are spending a fortune just to try to co-parent, which is ridiculous."

Elsewhere in the interview, Camille says she and Kelsey are still not officially divorced – even though they split in 2010, and he has since married Kayte Walsh – because, she claims, he still hasn't signed the papers.

"Release me! Set me free!" she says. "You're married; you have a child. We are going to meet before a judge again very soon, so hopefully this time it will be over."

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New tests could hamper food outbreak detection


WASHINGTON (AP) — It's about to get faster and easier to diagnose food poisoning, but that progress for individual patients comes with a downside: It could hurt the nation's ability to spot and solve dangerous outbreaks.


Next-generation tests that promise to shave a few days off the time needed to tell whether E. coli, salmonella or other foodborne bacteria caused a patient's illness could reach medical laboratories as early as next year. That could allow doctors to treat sometimes deadly diseases much more quickly — an exciting development.


The problem: These new tests can't detect crucial differences between different subtypes of bacteria, as current tests can. And that fingerprint is what states and the federal government use to match sick people to a contaminated food. The older tests might be replaced by the new, more efficient ones.


"It's like a forensics lab. If somebody says a shot was fired, without the bullet you don't know where it came from," explained E. coli expert Dr. Phillip Tarr of Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis.


The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns that losing the ability to literally take a germ's fingerprint could hamper efforts to keep food safe, and the agency is searching for solutions. According to CDC estimates, 1 in 6 Americans gets sick from foodborne illnesses each year, and 3,000 die.


"These improved tests for diagnosing patients could have the unintended consequence of reducing our ability to detect and investigate outbreaks, ultimately causing more people to become sick," said Dr. John Besser of the CDC.


That means outbreaks like the salmonella illnesses linked this fall to a variety of Trader Joe's peanut butter might not be identified that quickly — or at all.


It all comes down to what's called a bacterial culture — whether labs grow a sample of a patient's bacteria in an old-fashioned petri dish, or skip that step because the new tests don't require it.


Here's the way it works now: Someone with serious diarrhea visits the doctor, who gets a stool sample and sends it to a private testing laboratory. The lab cultures the sample, growing larger batches of any lurking bacteria to identify what's there. If disease-causing germs such as E. coli O157 or salmonella are found, they may be sent on to a public health laboratory for more sophisticated analysis to uncover their unique DNA patterns — their fingerprints.


Those fingerprints are posted to a national database, called PulseNet, that the CDC and state health officials use to look for food poisoning trends.


There are lots of garden-variety cases of salmonella every year, from runny eggs to a picnic lunch that sat out too long. But if a few people in, say, Baltimore have salmonella with the same molecular signature as some sick people in Cleveland, it's time to investigate, because scientists might be able narrow the outbreak to a particular food or company.


But culture-based testing takes time — as long as two to four days after the sample reaches the lab, which makes for a long wait if you're a sick patient.


What's in the pipeline? Tests that could detect many kinds of germs simultaneously instead of hunting one at a time — and within hours of reaching the lab — without first having to grow a culture. Those tests are expected to be approved as early as next year.


This isn't just a science debate, said Shari Shea, food safety director at the Association of Public Health Laboratories.


If you were the patient, "you'd want to know how you got sick," she said.


PulseNet has greatly improved the ability of regulators and the food industry to solve those mysteries since it was launched in the mid-1990s, helping to spot major outbreaks in ground beef, spinach, eggs and cantaloupe in recent years. Just this fall, PulseNet matched 42 different salmonella illnesses in 20 different states that were eventually traced to a variety of Trader Joe's peanut butter.


Food and Drug Administration officials who visited the plant where the peanut butter was made found salmonella contamination all over the facility, with several of the plant samples matching the fingerprint of the salmonella that made people sick. A New Mexico-based company, Sunland Inc., recalled hundreds of products that were shipped to large retailers all over the country, including Target, Safeway and other large grocery chains.


The source of those illnesses probably would have remained a mystery without the national database, since there weren't very many illnesses in any individual state.


To ensure that kind of crucial detective work isn't lost, the CDC is asking the medical community to send samples to labs to be cultured even when they perform a new, non-culture test.


But it's not clear who would pay for that extra step. Private labs only can perform the tests that a doctor orders, noted Dr. Jay M. Lieberman of Quest Diagnostics, one of the country's largest testing labs.


A few first-generation non-culture tests are already available. When private labs in Wisconsin use them, they frequently ship leftover samples to the state lab, which grows the bacteria itself. But as more private labs switch over after the next-generation rapid tests arrive, the Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene will be hard-pressed to keep up with that extra work before it can do its main job — fingerprinting the bugs, said deputy director Dr. Dave Warshauer.


Stay tuned: Research is beginning to look for solutions that one day might allow rapid and in-depth looks at food poisoning causes in the same test.


"As molecular techniques evolve, you may be able to get the information you want from non-culture techniques," Lieberman said.


___


Follow Mary Clare Jalonick on Twitter at http://twitter.com/mcjalonick


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Wall Street edges up with help from McDonald's

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were modestly higher on Monday, helped by stronger-than-expected sales from McDonald's, but gains were constrained as investors awaited any sign of progress in talks to avert the so-called fiscal cliff.


Developments in Europe also tempered sentiment after Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said he would resign once the 2013 budget is approved. The move added to uncertainty about reducing euro zone debt and drove Italy's borrowing costs higher.


U.S. President Barack Obama met with Republican House Speaker John Boehner on Sunday to negotiate a deal for avoiding the "fiscal cliff" that is set to go into effect in the new year.


The two sides declined to provide details about the unannounced meeting. Obama is expected to make remarks at 2 p.m. (1900 GMT) from Michigan where he is touring an auto plant.


The fiscal cliff talks have kept markets on edge in the last month as investors worry the scheduled measures could send the economy into recession if politicians do not reach a deal.


While the negotiations are at the forefront of investors' minds, most have adopted the position that a deal will be reached, even if it is at the last minute, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio.


"We haven't had any 'progress' the last two weeks or so, yet all in all equity markets have continued to hang tough," said Detrick. "The rhetoric from Washington is strong, but Wall Street is betting something probably will get done."


The Dow was helped by a gain in McDonald's Corp . The fast food chain's stronger-than-expected November sales marked a rebound after a decline in October. The stock was up 1 percent at $89.33.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> gained 32.64 points, or 0.25 percent, to 13,187.77. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> added 1.09 points, or 0.08 percent, to 1,419.16. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> rose 9.90 points, or 0.33 percent, to 2,987.95.


Ingersoll-Rand Plc said it will spin off its security division and announced a $2 billion share buyback, sending its shares up 2.4 percent at $49.86.


Cisco Systems boosted the Nasdaq after it laid out its midterm growth strategy on Friday. Its shares were up 2 percent at $19.72.



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U.S. Forecast as No. 2 Economy, but Energy Independent





WASHINGTON — A new intelligence assessment of global trends projects that China will outstrip the United States as the leading economic power before 2030, but that America will remain an indispensable world leader, bolstered in part by an era of energy independence.




Russia’s clout will wane, as will the economic strength of other countries reliant on oil for revenues, the assessment says.


The product of four years of intelligence-gathering and analysis, the study, by the National Intelligence Council, presents grounds for optimism and pessimism in nearly equal measure. The council reports to the director of national intelligence and has responsibilities for long-term strategic analysis.


One remarkable development it anticipates is a spreading affluence that leads to a larger global middle class that is better educated and has wider access to health care and communications technologies like the Internet and smartphones. The report assesses global trends until 2030.


“The growth of the global middle class constitutes a tectonic shift,” the study says, adding that billions of people will gain new individual power as they climb out of poverty. “For the first time, a majority of the world’s population will not be impoverished, and the middle classes will be the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries around the world.”


At the same time, it warns, half of the world’s population will probably be living in areas that suffer from severe shortages of fresh water, meaning that management of natural resources will be a crucial component of global national security efforts.


But these developments also bring significant risks, allowing radicalized groups to enter world politics on a scale even more violent than that of current terrorist organizations by adopting “lethal and disruptive technologies,” including biological weapons and cyberweapons.


The study warns of the risk that terrorists could mount a computer-network attack in which the casualties would be measured not by the hundreds or thousands killed but by the millions severely affected by damaged infrastructure, like electrical grids being taken down.


“There will not be any hegemonic power,” the 166-page report says. “Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.”


It warns that at least 15 countries are “at high risk of state failure” by 2030, among them Afghanistan and Pakistan, but also, Burundi, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda and Yemen.


The study acknowledges that the future “is malleable,” and it lists important “game changers” that will most influence the global scene until 2030: a crisis-prone world economy, shortcomings in governance, conflicts within states and between them, the impact of new technologies and whether the United States can “work with new partners to reinvent the international system.”


The best-case situation for global security until 2030, according to the study, would be a growing political partnership between the United States and China. But it could take a crisis to bring Washington and Beijing together — something like a nuclear standoff between India and Pakistan resolved only by bold cooperation between the United States and China.


The worst-case situation envisions a stalling of economic globalization that would preclude any advancement of financial well-being around the world. That would be a likely outcome after an outbreak of a health pandemic that, even if short-lived, would result in closed borders and economic isolationism.


The chief author and manager of the project, Mathew Burrows, who is counselor for the National Intelligence Council, said the findings had been presented in advance in more than 20 nations to groups of academic experts, business leaders and government officials, including local intelligence officers.


In an interview, Mr. Burrows noted that the audiences in China were far more accepting of the American intelligence assessments — both those predicting China’s economic ascendancy and those warning of political dangers if there was no reform of governance in Beijing — than were audiences in Russia.


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